My attention was drawn today to a new threat report issued by Cyveillance covering their H1 2009 Cyber Intelligence Report. It's a nice report that focuses extensively on Web-based fraud and infection tactics - offering yet another view of the threat landscape.
While much of the report is fairly standard stuff (my, haven't things changed over the last 3 years now that every security company is putting out similar reports!), there's one particular nugget I found especially interesting. It would seem that Cyveillance conducted a solid study of the malicious Web sites they were periodically navigating, retreiving the malware from the drive-by attempt, and then subjecting the sample to a battery of standard AV detection products. The net result is an analysis of the effectiveness of traditional (mainstream) AV products to identify the malware as malicious.
By way of illustration:
The findings of their study reveal that AV detection of "0-day" malware is poor. In fact you could summarize it as becoming a victim to drive-by malware with every second site you visit - despite having "protection". Some AV products fared much, much worse.
It's a valuable proof-point for the consumer that host-based AV isn't really cut out for protecting home computers any more.
In addition, I think it's further backing to something I've been saying for a couple of years now - corporations that conduct business over the Internet need to assume that (in many cases) their customers computers are already compromised and they may not be able to trust anything that comes from them. Therefore, corporations need to develop alternative security and validation technologies situated in the backend - operating in environments they can control (and trust) - rather than trying to forcing the security emphasis upon their own customers. Basically, in order to continue to do business with Internet customers, they have to assume that a sizable percentage of their customers and transactions are compromised. The whitepaper on the topic is "Continuing Business with Malware Infected Customers".
Getting back to the findings from Cyveillance... I wrote about the tactics being adopted by drive-by-download cyber-criminals and the advancement of their automated delivery systems (X-Morphic Exploitation) back in 2007 and they've been improving their techniques in the meantime. With a bit of luck I'll be releasing a new whitepaper soon covering the latest techniques and tools being used by cyber-criminals to develop undetectable serial variant malware - so watch out for it.
Actually, I'll be covering this topic a little next week at Hacker Halted 2009 in Miami - so drop on by if you want to see the real deal in undetectable malware production.